Red Bull's Challenges in 2024: From Dominance to Struggles
Max Verstappen's fourth Formula 1 championship last year was largely built on the substantial points advantage he gained during the early part of the season, followed by a strong performance throughout the remainder of the year. However, Red Bull's dominance began to wane after the sixth race in Miami, where the car no longer held the massive lead over competitors that it had in the season's first five races or in the previous two years.
By the end of the season, Red Bull remained the fastest car on average in qualifying, beating McLaren by just 0.052 seconds. But from Miami onwards, McLaren had the upper hand, with the British team outpacing Red Bull by 0.053 seconds. In fact, during the second half of the season, McLaren was faster by 0.142 seconds, while Ferrari surpassed Red Bull by 0.008 seconds.
If McLaren had started the season in a better position, Verstappen’s championship defense would have been much more challenging.
Red Bull’s issues stemmed from a fundamental balance problem that became more apparent as the season progressed. Despite their attempts to improve the car, they struggled to solve mid-corner, low-speed understeer without causing oversteer in high-speed corners.
Adrian Newey, Red Bull’s design chief, explained, “Towards the end of 2023, the car became harder to drive. Max could handle it, but Checo (Sergio Perez) couldn’t. That carried into the start of 2024, although the car was still quick enough to cope with it.”
Newey expressed concern over the situation, saying that some in the team didn’t seem to recognize the problem. As the car's handling issues grew worse, even Verstappen found it increasingly difficult to drive.
Red Bull’s struggles were also partly due to their failure to exploit aero-elasticity in the front wings, a method that McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari had adopted. This technique allows front wings to flex at high speeds, reducing downforce and mitigating oversteer, while returning to optimal downforce at lower speeds.
New rules for 2024 have limited the flexibility of front wings starting from the Spanish Grand Prix in June, adding further challenges to Red Bull’s performance. The question now is whether this was their only problem and if they can close the performance gap that McLaren and Ferrari have gained, as well as keep up with their rivals' development over the winter.
What Does Newey’s Departure Mean for Red Bull?
Adrian Newey’s departure from Red Bull has added to the team's challenges. The timing coincided with allegations of sexual harassment and controlling behavior made against Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, though Horner was cleared of any wrongdoing in two internal investigations. The situation created internal tension, with Newey feeling increasingly unsettled by the team's politics.
One key issue was a disagreement between Newey and technical director Pierre Wache over who should take credit for Red Bull’s recent success. Newey felt that Wache was unfairly seeking credit for the 2022 car, which Newey believed was his brainchild. The departure of Newey, followed by the exits of sporting director Jonathan Wheatley and head of strategy Will Courtenay, has left Red Bull's design team under scrutiny.
The 2025 car will inevitably evolve from the 2024 model, given that the 2024 regulations are the final year before major changes are introduced. However, Newey’s absence gives Wache and the design team an opportunity to prove themselves outside of Newey's shadow. This will be a crucial period for Red Bull, as the team's performance will be closely watched.
Helmut Marko, Red Bull's motorsport advisor, has already noted that the team was slower to address their issues in 2024 than they would have been had Newey remained involved. If Red Bull cannot return to dominance, the team will face significant scrutiny.
Could Verstappen Leave Red Bull?
The pressure on Red Bull is even greater given the potential implications for Verstappen’s future. Although the Dutch driver is under contract with Red Bull until 2028, his deal includes performance clauses, the details of which remain undisclosed. If Red Bull fails to deliver a competitive car, Verstappen could opt to leave.
Verstappen’s father, Jos, has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Horner's leadership, even suggesting that the team risked falling apart if Horner remained in charge. With other key departures from the team, including Wheatley and Courtenay, Jos Verstappen's concerns seem valid.
Meanwhile, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has made no secret of his desire to have Verstappen drive for Mercedes as soon as possible. Verstappen may also have options at Aston Martin and Ferrari, with both teams potentially looking to make changes in the near future. However, with the significant regulatory changes coming in 2026, Verstappen may choose to wait and see how things unfold before making any decisions.
If Red Bull is not competitive in 2024, Verstappen might consider leaving earlier than expected.
Will Lawson Improve on Perez’s Performance?
Liam Lawson, who stepped in for Daniel Ricciardo last season, showed some solid performances but was slightly slower than teammate Yuki Tsunoda in qualifying on average. Sergio Perez’s poor performances last year cost Red Bull dearly in the constructors' championship, as he finished behind all other drivers from the top four teams and failed to secure a podium after the fifth race of the season.
Perez’s struggles were a significant factor in Red Bull falling to third in the constructors' standings, behind McLaren and Ferrari. However, Perez’s average qualifying gap to Verstappen was just over 0.4 seconds, which is better than the deficits seen by Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly in previous years before they were dropped.
Now, Lawson will be under pressure to perform better than Perez did, or Red Bull management may face renewed scrutiny over their driver choices.
